IRONMAN once again returns to southwestern Utah for a championship caliber race, this time for the 70.3 North American Championship in St. George. This is a race that has produced some stellar racing over the past few years, including a final mile battle between Lionel Sanders and Sam Long in 2021.

Those two men are returning here for potentially another late run shootout. However, they will also have to contend with a field that contains some excellent swim-bike athletes who could leave them chasing for an extended period of time. On the women’s side, defending champion of this race Daniela Ryf isn’t here, but the field includes big names including Skye Moench, Jeanni Metzler and more.

Here’s who we expect to be dueling it out for victory come Saturday morning.

Men’s Contenders

Lionel Sanders: You can’t ever count out the man wearing the #1 bib. That said, for a man who is consistently at the front of races, Sanders hasn’t been able to put together a good result at a race since last summer’s Collins Cup. On race morning it will be more than ten months since Sanders has won a race. He’s also coming back from a cycling crash during CLASH Endurance’s Miami event a little under two months ago. If he’s healthy, you know the M.O.: limit the damage on the swim, then unleash hell on the bike and run. It’s worked incredibly well on hillier races, including a win in the 70.3 here two years ago, and taking second place at the 2021 IRONMAN World Championships held here last May. He’s due for a win.

Sam Long: The other man who will look to bike-run his way to victory, Long too hasn’t had the best of performances to kick off his 2023. In particular, his 7th place in Oceanside last month was troubling in that neither his bike nor run performances were up to Sam Long standard, giving up minutes where he would normally be gobbling them from the competition. Still, Long has taken two seconds in St. George at this distance. In fact, outside of his penalty-driven 19th place at the 2022 IRONMAN 70.3 Worlds, you have to go back to 2018 for an outside the top 5 finish at a St. George 70.3 event for Long. It would be a mistake to count him out.

Matt Hanson: Another part of the No Good Very Bad Luck crew, Hanson was in good position on the bike at IRONMAN Texas when an age grouper crashed in front of him, and Hanson was collateral damage. According to his own Instagram, Hanson will still be a game-time decision based on how his lower back is holding up. However, assuming that he does make the start, Hanson’s an outside threat for the top step but a solid contender for a podium place; any man capable of running under 70 minutes in a 70.3 has a shot at a podium. It’s just a question of whether his bike will be strong enough to have a small enough gap to close over 13.1 miles.

Jackson Laundry: Laundry rolls into Utah with the best performance out of the major contenders in 2023 to his name, taking 3rd in Oceanside. He also was a close second to Long to close out 2022 at Indian Wells. Laundry’s repeatedly been around the top 10 here in St. George, including two fifth place performances in 2021 and a 7th place during last year’s IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship race. I’d put him as a comfortable favorite to make the podium in some form or fashion.

Justin Metzler: Metzler’s arguably had the best recent race history of the names we’ve mentioned so far; in his last six races he has a win, four podiums and a fourth place to his name. But he also has the most rust on him, having not raced since October 16th, 2022. That’s an eternity these days. His track record in season-opening races is not great. He was 16th in his season opener last year, 9th in 2021, and 7th in 2020. You have to go to 2019 to find a podium in his first race of the year, and that’s the only one to his name. Still, Metzler’s swim is strong enough to put a gap into Long and Sanders, and he’s well rounded enough to make moves like that stick at a 70.3.

Trevor Foley: Here’s my outside pick for the podium. (Thank you, Ben Deal!) Foley raced a lot in his first full year as a professional in 2022. As in, 11 races in under 8 months lot. Results were mixed: two wins and two seconds but also four DNFs. His 2023 results aren’t particularly noteworthy; 9th at Oceanside and 16th at Texas. Still, Foley’s best days on the bike and run are strong enough to be able to latch onto the back of a Long / Sanders push to the front. If he’s hanging around when the race hits Snow Canyon, he’s got a shot.

Men’s Full Start List

1 Lionel Sanders
2 Jackson Laundry
3 Sam Long
4 Matt Hanson
5 Trevor Foley
6 Luciano Taccone
7 Justin Metzler
8 Tomas Rodriguez Hernandez
9 Brent McMahon
10 Andre Lopes
12 Adam Feigh
13 Matt Russell
14 Nicholas Chase
15 Stephen Kilshaw
16 Dylan Gillespie
17 Jason Pohl
18 Benjamin Deal
20 Robbie Deckard
21 Luis Ortiz
22 Eduardo Perez Sandi
23 Brennen Smith
24 Tripp Hippie
25 Yu Hsiao
27 Nick Corman
28 Christopher Hammer
29 Conor Bollinger
30 Benjamin Ford
31 Timothy Winslow
32 Jonathan Fecik
34 Isaac Diaz
35 Nicholas Scott
36 Cody Sahlstrom
37 Brendan Gribbons
38 Brice Williams
39 Devin Volk
40 Emmett Gross
42 Marc Dubrick
43 Scott Haeberle
44 Jose Luis Cordova Perez

Women’s Contenders

Skye Moench: The top ranked woman in the field, Moench is also a consistent performer here in St. George. In fact, she’s been no worse than sixth at a race here since 2017. That said, she’s always been just off the podium — multiple fourth place finishes. That, combined with the fact that Moench hasn’t finished on the podium of a 70.3 distance race in two years (April 2021’s 70.3 Texas), means that although she’s a favorite, if I were putting money out there I would be very cautious about betting Moench for an outright win.

Jeanni Metzler: Metzler returns to St. George for the first time since taking second twice here in 2021 — once at the spring race, and then at the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships. Metzler took nearly all of 2022 off from racing for her mental health. She had a promising performance at her one IRONMAN 70.3 race last year in Indian Wells, with all of her discipline splits within range of her best days. Metzler also typically opens her season well, winning her first race of the year in four straight seasons and then a second in St. George to kick off her 2021.

Jackie Hering: Hering’s a steady performer in St. George, with three top 10s in her last three races here. That said, she’s still looking to reach the same heights as her late season run in 2019, where she rattled off three wins in four races and finished no worse than 5th in every race that wasn’t the World Championships. Hering had a good performance at CLASH Daytona in December, taking fourth.

Danielle Lewis: Arguably the strongest bike-runner in the field, Lewis has to limit the damage in the swim in order have an impact. She has not had a good swim here in St. George, never swimming faster than 29:59. She’s been in the money at both of her races so far in 2023 — 6th in Oceanside, 5th at few weeks ago in Texas.

Lauren Brandon: Likely to wind up in the back half of the men’s field during the swim, it’s just a question of how much of a lead she will have onto the bike. Her swim split in Texas put her comfortably up the road and holding onto the lead for an extended period on the bike. We can expect much the same here. The question is how long she can ride solo for. At other hilly events, Brandon’s lead has evaporated sooner than she needs to be able to hold on for a quality finish. Still, it feels right to slate her for a top five finish.

Lesley Smith: It feels strange putting Smith in the dark horse category. Still, she has not won a middle to full distance race since 2014. That isn’t a typo. It was 70.3 Austin. Since then she’s been remarkably consistent most years. However, recent form has been more sporadic. Her highs have been as they ever were, with many podium finishes. But there have also been far more DNFs and non-top 10 finishes to her name in 2021 and 2022 than ever before. Like Lewis, she’ll need to rely on being close enough coming out of the water to close the gap to the front.

Women’s Start List

50 Skye Moench
52 Rach McBride
53 Jeanni Metzler
54 Meredith Kessler
55 Jackie Hering
57 Danielle Lewis
58 Lesley Smith
59 Lauren Brandon
60 Anna Bergsten
61 Olivia Mitchell
62 Melanie Mcquaid
63 Alycia Hill
65 Tyler Hudacek
66 Pamela-ann Bachelder St-Pierre
67 Sif Bendix Madsen
68 Rachel Mensch
69 Kayla Bowker
70 Brittany Vocke
71 Alex Watt
72 Ashley Paulson
73 Ashley Dellosa
74 Olivia Dietzel
75 Rebecca Anderbury
76 Danielle Fauteux
77 Hannah Sakaluk
78 Jenna Horner
79 Batya Beard
80 Gabrielle Lumkes
81 Lauren Babineau
83 Rebecca Yunginger