In a weekend full of big events, there’s none bigger than Challenge Roth. The classic event has one of the deeper fields we’ve seen outside of a World Championship race, and has the chances to produce a new world-best time.
Don’t take my word for it — it was said by a few professionals during yesterday’s media event.
“Whoever wants to win this race will need to break the world record,” according to Daniela Ryf. Anne Haug echoed the same thought: “The quality of field is so high I do think that if you want to win the race you’ll need to have to break the record.”
There will be sure to be some late race heroics and heartbreak with the depth of field here. Here’s who we expect to see first on Sunday (which, as a reminder, you will be able to watch live here on Slowtwitch’s homepage).
Women’s Contenders
Daniela Ryf: Quick — what’s the last time a healthy Daniela Ryf was beaten at a full-distance triathlon?
OK, time’s up.
It’s Kona 2014.
In between there’s been 16 victories, and usually with an absolutely dominant margin of victory. If there is one person well-suited to leading from the front and chasing a world-best time, it’s Ryf. And she’s no stranger to winning in Roth, taking the title twice. If her time at 70.3 Switzerland is an indicator of fitness and health, given that she’s raced it multiple times over the years, it appears like we’re getting a very healthy Ryf toeing the starting line. She might be taking a blowtorch to the record books.
Anne Haug: The two-time defending champion here, Haug’s on a heater, winning all three of her races thus far in 2023. Haug’s the best runner in the women’s field, and Roth has usually rewarded running prowess. The biggest question mark is usually how much ground she has to close. In Kona, she simply ran out of real estate to chase down Chelsea Sodaro and Lucy Charles-Barclay. If the deficit at T2 is under 5 minutes, you could probably bet the house on Haug. (Bet responsibly.)
Chelsea Sodaro: It’s rare for your defending world champion to seem to fly under the radar. And yet, Sodaro seems to be the dark horse in the field. Her 2023 schedule has been quiet, with her last appearance a DNF at the PTO European Open. She’d opened well in Oceanside (and donated her prize money to gun violence prevention). She seems comfortable, confident, and relaxed — all things that seemed to be in line in Kona last year. Sodaro’s an athlete that can race from the front and has the legs to hold off most charges from the super runners. I’d be shocked if she’s not on the podium this weekend.
Fenella Langridge: Langridge had an excellent performance here in 2022. It’s just that she didn’t have nearly enough of a lead to hold off Haug. Her best chance is to send the swim and the bike to build as much of a cushion as possible. She knows it, too, saying yesterday that, “My plan on Sunday is to start in the lead and finish in the lead.” Langridge has yet to take victory in a full distance race, but she’s a consistent podium threat.
Laura Philipp: Alright, another moment of trivia: name the last time Philipp didn’t win a race she started in Europe.
August 2016.
The home field advantage is real. Philipp is nearly lights out when she races in Europe. She won in Hamburg last June, and she’s no slouch when it comes to a global stage, having taken a pair of fourths in Kona. Like Langridge, she’s already raced a full distance event in 2023. Philipp won, over Langridge. “Knowing who is racing, it will not be a boring day,” said Philipp. Mild understatement.
Prediction
1 Daniela Ryf
2 Chelsea Sodaro
3 Laura Philipp
Men's Contenders
Magnus Ditlev: The defending champion current uberbiker of triathlon (yes, ranked just north of one Sam Long), Ditlev’s a complete threat. He’ll swim near the front, bike the wheels off of anybody, and then still run well. He’s had a much quieter start to 2023 after a frenzy-filled end to 2022 where he finished 8th in Kona, 3rd at 70.3 Worlds, and then won IRONMAN Cozumel. Ditlev’s going to be there on Sunday and is a strong contender to repeat.
Daniel Baekkegard: Baekkegard’s looking to regain his 2021 form, where he finished no worse than third in any race that year, including the bronze medal at 2021 70.3 Worlds. When Baekkegard’s on, he’s a world-beating talent. He’s been slightly busier than most, having raced three times to kick off 2023. Tactically, he’s going to need to be up front coming out of T2. It’s a tall ask given this field, but Baekkegard has made a habit of proving people wrong on big stages.
Ben Kanute: Yes, a bit of a homer pick. The second guest ever on our Podcast and resident facial hair aficianado, Kanute’s put a lot of eggs in his Roth basket, building the peak of his year here (and skipping Nice). This is just his second full-distance race, having finished in third at IRONMAN Arizona this fall (and nearly matching the run time of winner Joe Skipper in the process). Kanute will be at the front early with his swim, and then will look for a balanced bike-run performance (similar to what he delivered in Arizona) to bring at least a podium home.
Joe Skipper: The full-distance specialist in the field, Skipper’s looking to redeem himself after a poor performance at the World Triathlon Long Distance Championships (held the same weekend as the PTO European Open). Skipper’s fall form last year (two full distance wins and a 5th in Kona) shows he can turn up when there’s a world-class field. One question is how he’s responding to being a new father; he said at the press conference that “I thought raising a kid was going to be about the same has having 2 dogs. Turns out it’s a lot harder.” The other question for him is how much ground he’ll have to make up after the swim; given that there are some world-class swim-bikers in the field, Skipper has more work to do than normal if he’s behind. But he might have a little more help on that front than normal.
Sebastian Kienle: The next stop on Kienle’s farewell to pro triathlon tour sees Kienle return to Roth for the first time in two years. He’s had great success here, with multiple podiums and a win in 2018. Kienle loves it here: “I can always feel my heart beat a little faster here at Roth and that’s why I picked this race again this year. [It] is all about having zero regrets at the finish line.” It’s not like he’s a fading star, either, having finished sixth in Kona this past year and no worse than fourth in any of the events he’s done thus far in 2023. It’s likely that Kienle and Skipper will emerge out of T1 together and be forced to chase the rest of the day — but that’s not a bad place for Kienle to work from, either.
Patrick Lange and Sam Laidlow: It’s strange putting these two names this far down the field. But it’s a fair assessment, especially with Laidlow only recently overcoming a liver infection while Lange’s had a relatively empty racing calendar. They’ll attack the race differently; Laidlow off the front early and trying to stay away in a repeat of his Kona performance, while Lange will hope to turn it into a running race. But both feel like longer shots given the depth of field here and the way the race will seem to unfold.
Prediction
1 Magnus Ditlev
2 Ben Kanute
3 Sebastian Kienle